European Economy. Quarterly report on the euro area 2009.

Abstract

Like other advanced economies, the euro area is in the midst of its most severe economic crisis in the post-war era. Some very early signs of improvement have been visible in the past few weeks. Stock prices have been rising, and lower money and bond market spreads, along with reduced exchange rate volatility, signal some measure of stabilisation. In addition, business and consumer confidence has improved over the past two months in the euro area while some 'green shoots' have also been springing up in the global economy since the beginning of the year, particularly in a number of emerging markets. Thus, the worst seems to be behind us in terms of GDP contraction and our spring forecast predicts a subdued recovery for 2010.