Comparison of Long-Term World Energy Studies: assumptions and results from four world energy models

Abstract

The POLES model is widely used to assess possible long term trends of energy supply and demand under various assumptions. For this purpose, policy-driven scenarios are compared to a reference (or baseline) development. Developing a reliable and consistent reference scenario is thus important. This report compares the POLES reference scenario published in the WETO-H2 report with the outcome of reference projections from world energy models used by the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy and the World Energy Council. Following the comparison of basic input parameters like population and GDP, the projections regarding oil price, greenhouse gas emissions and energy sources are analysed. On this basis, conclusions about the concordances and the discrepancies of the energy models are drawn