Statistics in Focus: Population and social conditions. FIRST DEMOGRAPHIC ESTIMATES FOR 1999.

Abstract

After five years of rapid decline, the net inflow of international migrants (immigration minus emigration) to the European Union increased somewhat in 1998: from 512 000 in 1997 to 549 000 people. Based upon monthly data available at the end of 1999, latest forecasts and expert opinions, net migration is expected to increase more strongly in 1999 to a level of 717 000 people. The annual number of asylum applications will also rise considerably (this development generally leads to higher net migration). Monthly data up to September 1999 indicate that during 1999 almost 350 000 asylum applications were made within the EU. This is 60 000, or well over 20%, more than in 1998. The total number of live births is expected to decrease slightly, whilst the number of deaths will barely change. Natural population growth (live births minus deaths) is forecast to decline from 295 000 in 1998 to a new post-war low of around 266 000 in 1999. Consequently, total population growth is estimated to reach a level of well over 980 000, or 0.26%, bringing the total EU population on 1 January 2000 to 376.4 million.