Europa transport. Observation of the transport markets. Analysis and forecasts 1988

Abstract

Describes the background deveLopment of internationalrnf,ra-uommunity goods transport by'Hire and Reward'road hau_riers from 1981 to 1996. 0n an intra-EuR-10 basis, traffic grewby 269o and addition of spain and portugal in 1,9g6 increased themarket by a further 27%. Inclusion of Lross-trades recorded un_der the community Quota, which were growing faster than biraterarmovements, added a further ).4,^ in l9g6 to give a totar market ofLOU x t09 t-km.The use of community Quota authorisations from lggl to tgsi isexamined in chapter 2. use of community Quota authorisationsrose by 65% riom---FEr to 19g6 on an intra-Eutt-1"0 basis and by afurther 26% in 19B6 to.15.5 x 1u9 t-km including spain and portu_98r. Provi::cional results indicate a f urther zg% increase in r9g7to 20 x r09 t-km. The share of totar traffic held by communityQuota rose from 10.5H in lggl to I5,5% in 1985,cross-trading. movements as a share of all community Quota move-ments roae slightly from 20.i% in lggl to zr.9'^ in 19g6 but as apercentage of total traffic rose mope rapidly from 2.r% in lggSto 3.4% in 198b. 0nly on the relation between Belgium and Itarydid cross-trades have more than ltl% of the market in 1986.The economie impact of the community Quota from tggT to lggg isassessed in chapter l. Ihe growth of totar traffic from t9B6 to1989 is assufrffi-Ti-E? 5% per annun and di f f erent growth rates f orhauliers from each Member State have been oerivel using resultsfrom a PR0GN05 study.Two alternative scenarios are evaluated for the number of Commu-nity Quota authorisations in l.9Bg, 13477 ( that valid from J March-1.988 onwards, trlgBB B" ) and 17 153 ( the compromise proposaJ. on thecouncil, table of l4 l"larch l9gg, 'rl9gg c"). For rggg a Linear 4{.J%increase to 24OZI is evaluateo.Arlowing for some decrease in the sverage use of ^comnrunityQuota authorisetions, the use is.-forecast to" ue 25 x L09 t_km un_der scengrio lgBB ts and lr x 109 t-km under scenario lggu c (ifthis applied for the full year); in lg8g the forecast is42 x r07 t-km. corresponding to these forecasts, the share ofthe_ community Quota in totar traffic is expected to rise from15.5% in .1986 to 19.o% in rgBT , 23% under l9s8 B, 28% under1988 c (1f this applied for the fulr year) and 36% in rg89.In 1986 the share of the community Quota in totar traffic byhaulier from each l'lember State varied from I0% for Netherlandsand Greece to over t5% for Luxembourg, Irerand and Denmark. tsyL989t the rowest share is forecait to be for France anoNetherlands , 27%, whire for Luxembourg, Irerand, Denmark andPortugal the share is foreeast to be t-on or over; full detailsfor all Member States in Table t.4