Rapid Report. Energy and industry. Extract from "Industrial Trends - July 1993" Sharp fall in capital goods production.

Abstract

Production in European industry is still falling, with no signs of levelling off. Particularly production of capital goods, which should provide momentum for the next upturn, is declining notably. The rate of change of the production index adjusted for the number of working days for the European Community (EUR 12) was -4.2% in March 1993 and -5.6% in April 1993 compared with the same months in 1992. The corre-sponding figures for capital goods are -6.3% in March and -7.7% in April. The figures for the most recent three-month period, i.e. February to April 1993, show a ra le of change in the seasonally adj u-sted production 2,. Production Index Manufacturing Feb, Mar, Apr/ Nov, Dec, Jan EUR12 J~ 0 F GROK NL USA PBE LUl<IRL index for EUR 12 which is 0.4% down on the previous three months (November to January). This figure is +0.9%> in the United States, indicating a slight reco-very. The picture is as follows for the major goods categories (change in the last three months compared with the previous three months): • Intermediate goods: EUR12 +0,0% USA: +1.0%, Manuscript completed on - 20.07.1993 • Capital goods: EUR12 -2.8% USA: +1.1%, • Consumer goods: EUR12 +0,1.% USA: +0.6%. Production in construction (NACE 5) in the Europe-an Community is also falling dramatically: the seaso-nally adjusted rate of change in the final quarter of 1992 compared with the autumn months was -3.5%, with an estimated -2.0% for the first quarter of 1993. The rate of change in seasonally-adjusted indu-strial production for the individual Community Member States in the last three months compa-red with the previous three months is as follows (capital goods in brackets}: Ireland +4.4% (8.0%) [estimated], Luxembourg +4.2% (0.2%) [estima-ted], Netherlands +3.3% (-0.1%), Denmark +1.6% (+4.6%), Italy +0.9% (-3.7%). United Kingdom +0.6% (+3.3%). France +0.5% (-2.0%), Portugal -0.3% (-5.0%) [estimated], Belgium -0.3% (+2.5%) [estimated], Greece -0.9%> (-4.901o), Spain -0.7% (-1.1%), Germany {West) -3.1% (-4.2%). Thus pro-duction is falling in many Member States, parti-cularly the large ones, often precisely in the capital goods sector. The situation is especially dramatic in the motor vehicle manufacturing sector in the Community, where production in EUR12 dropped by 10% between the last quarter of 1992 and the first quarter of 1993. The figures for the large Member States are as follows: Germany -17%, France -8%, Italy -5% and the United Kingdom +2.5%.