The market for solid fuels in the Community in 2002 and the outlook for 2003.

Abstract

Although the world production and consumption of coal, both for electricity generation and steel production, is growing at a steady pace, the world economic recession of 2001 and its partial recovery during 2002 saw coal consumption fall in 2002 in all regions except the Far East. However, with the strengthening of the global economy in 2003, coal demand and consumption increased more than forecast in most regions, particularly in the Atlantic Basin. During the second half of 2003, the international coal market changed dramatically following China’s unexpected and dramatic increase in domestic demand in both the power generation and steel sectors. These events in China were primarily responsible for an escalation in global freight rates not seen in the past 30 years, particularly for deliveries into Europe. Delivered prices of steam coal into Europe rose from around $34.50 at the beginning of 2003 to over $62 towards the end of the year. The scale of China’s demand growth for imports of raw materials for its booming steel sector, which became evident at the beginning of Q4, 2003, coupled with a government decision at the end of November 2003 to severely curtail steam coal exports because of chronic domestic supply shortages, has thrown into question the level of future export volumes from China of steam coal, coking coal and coke