Rapid Report. Energy and industry. Extract from "Industrial Trends - August/September 1992" Danger of recession at the horizon.
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Working Document
Author
EU Commission
Date
1992View/ Open
Subject headings
Industrial PolicyAbstract
The latest figures on industrial production in the Euro-pean Community (EUR 12) in June 1992 have again dashed hopes of an economic recovery. Instead, there was a noticeable decline in production of all types of goods. The industrial production index for EUR 12, adjusted for EUR12: Total Industry Chan;• from con••P.. qu•rter ol pravloua year 5'if. . 3,i, . 2'if. . !'if. O'ifo EUR12: Production Index Manuscript completed on = 15.06.1992 the number of working days, was 115.8 (1985 = 100) in June 1992, representing a rate of change of-2.3 % compa-red with June 1991. After seasonal adjustment, the index for June was 113.1, whereas in May it had stood at 114.1, meaning that the production index for EUR 12 fell by a full point within the space of a month. The seasonal-ly adjusted figure for EUR 12 production in the last three months for which figures are available (April, May, June 1992) fell by 1.5 % compared with the cumulative figure for the first three months of 1992. Having risen by 3 % in March/ April compared with the same period in 1991, (estimated) new orders in EUR 12, which indicate the future trend of produc-tion, saw a rate of change of -0.5 % in May /June 1992. In the USA, industrial production rose by 1.1 % (rate of change for the last three months compared with the previous three months), while in Japan the downturn in industrial production continued at a rate of -2.7 % (estimate). A slight recovery can therefore be detected in the USA, while the production of all types of goods in EUR 12 is stagnant and the recession in Japan conti-nues. As regards changes in prices, the EC indices of producer prices show a slight increase in inflation. Prices in EUR 12 rose by 2.0 % in June 1992. [March 1992; 1.9 %] (Intermediate goods: 0.9 % [03/92: 0.3 %], capital goods: 2.3 % [03/92: 2.5 %], consumer goods: 3.6 % [03/92: 4.1 %])